『Granville’s New Strategy of Daily Stock Market Timing for Maximum Profit』から読み解く
Joseph E.Granville（グランビル氏）が、いわゆる「グランビルの法則」を提唱したのは、彼が1960年代に出版した『Granville’s New Strategy of Daily Stock Market Timing for Maximum Profit』の中であるとされています。
日本語訳も出版されていますが、現在は古本でしか購入できないようです。
この古本はなんと、21,000円もします！なかなか手が出せないですね。
さて、原書である『Granville’s New Strategy of Daily Stock Market Timing for Maximum Profit』を紐解いてみましょう。
まず、大前提として『Granville’s New Strategy of Daily Stock Market Timing for Maximum Profit』は株式市場の分析のための解説本であることを知っておく必要があります。株式とFXではそもそも動きが異なるわけですから、その点は考慮しておくべきですね。
The stock was a buy in January 1958 at $47 a share as seen by the upside penetration of a bottoming out 200-day line (Buy signal #1). The trader would have sold the stock at $67.50 in late January 1959 on its continuing inability to surpass the November 1958 high of $71, expecting a retraction toward its 200-day line (Sell signal #8). The stock was repurchased at $62.50 in early March 1959 after it had gone under its 200-day line because the stock had met support and started to turn up following its downside penetration of a rising 200-day line (Buy signal #2). The stock provided a second buy signal on its upside penetration of the 200-day line at $66 later in March 1959 (Buy confirmation). The stock was again a sale between $82.50 and $85 the end of April 1959 (Sell signal #8). The stock was then repurchased at $72 in June 1959 (Buy signal #3) and sold out at a slight loss at $70 on downside penetration of the 200-day line in August 1959. The stock turns up from support level demonstrated in February 1959 and is repurchased at $64 in September 1959 for technical recovery back toward the 200-day line (Buy signal #4). Failing to reach that line after approaching it at $67.50 in December 1959, the stock is sold at $65, the level breaking the November 1959 support (Sell signal #7).
Recapitulating, the trader (restricting himself to the long side of the market has a $3,900 profit on an initial $4,700 outlay, a percentage gain of almost 83% in less than two years.
Bought Sold Gain Jan 1958 100 shares at 47 Jan 1959 at 67.5 2050 Mar 1959 100 shares at 62.50 April 1959 at 82.5 2000 June 1959 100 shares at 72 Aug 1959 at 70 -200 Sep 1959 100 shares at 64 Dec 1959 at 65 100
Net Gain $3,950
In the above example a very significant point is seen: Because of the guidance provided by the 200-day moving average price Line, the slight 2-point loss on the August 1959 sale was prevented from becoming a bigger loss. While it is always sound advice to tell somebody to let their profits run and cut their losses short, this is often easier said than done, human nature dictating the frequent taking of profits but the infrequent taking of small losses This allows small losses to often run into big losses.
